McConnell remains confident while Lunsford turns to strategy

Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Louisville) visited southern Kentucky over the weekend to deliver the opening remarks for the Glasgow Highland Games.

While at the games, McConnell spoke briefly about his race against Democrat Bruce Lunsford. "I think we're in good shape," he said, according to WBKO. "We have a lead, but it's going to be a competitive contest. It's not going to be a cakewalk and I'm ready for it."

Polls show a competitive race, leaving the Kentucky residents to keep guessing who will take the seat this fall. However, some political junkies such as the Herald-Leader's Ryan Alessi are finding that McConnell may in fact have a slight advantage.

McConnell's advantage, reported Alessi, stems from his success rate in the most populated areas. With a 93 percent success rate of winning in the top-10 most-populated areas of the state, Lunsford has a tough road ahead of him if he wants to sway these heavy McConnell supporting counties.

According to the Herald-Leader, "Not counting McConnell's landslide victory in 2002 over Democrat Lois Combs Weinberg, McConnell has amassed an average cushion of 47,167 votes out of the 20 most populous counties, according to a Herald-Leader analysis. Together, those 20 out of 120 counties account for 55 percent of all Kentucky voters."

"If McConnell could duplicate that average margin in the biggest counties this fall, that would force Lunsford to collectively win the smaller 80 counties by a margin of 7 to 10 percentage points."

So what can the Lunsford campaign do to challenge these odds?

Achim Bergmann told the Herald-Leader that their plan is to rewrite McConnell's traditional electoral map and compete head-to-head on television in places such as Northern and Western Kentucky.

"That's something we're going to be able to afford to do," he said. Lunsford is expected to not only receive national fund-raising help but also to donate some of his personal wealth to the campaign.

Bergmann also said Lunsford can appeal to Western and Eastern Kentuckians who have tended to vote Republican in recent elections. "It's the conservative Democrats that we won in the primary and those are the ones who vote for McConnell in the general elections," Bergmann said.

"We've been telling people that from the very beginning -- that Bruce's independent profile that he has and that kind of maverick nature that appeals to those voters."

WBKO Story

Herald-Leader Story