Kelley sees positive side of KY-4 poll, while Davis 'will take nothing for granted'

U.S. Rep. Geoff Davis (R-Ft. Mitchell): Getty Images Photo A recent poll conducted on Kentucky's 4th Congressional District race showed numbers very similar to the results from election night in 2006. In a late-June SurveyUSA poll, incumbent U.S. Rep. Geoff Davis (R-Ft. Mitchell) was shown leading his Democratic opponent, physician Michael Kelley of Lagrange, 54 to 41 percent among 550 likely voters.

Similarly, Davis was re-elected to the 4th District seat in 2006 by only a slightly slimmer margin, 52 to 43 percent.

The difference this year is that Davis faces a much lower-profile candidate than in 2006, when he beat former 4th District U.S. Rep. Ken Lucas (D-Richwood) in a campaign that cost the two candidates over $5 million.

For Kelley and his supporters, the new poll numbers are encouraging given their similarities to 2006 - and the fact that Kelley has spent almost nothing in the race.

"It's a lot smaller gap than most people would have believed possible," Kelley told PolitickerKY.com.

"The poll shows him basically with the very same numbers as how the Congressional race ended up in 2006," said Kelley's campaign treasurer Mike Bailey. "The numbers came out to about what they are now and Dr. Kelley has spent almost nothing."

Kelley said the poll showed that "people are sick of the status quo" and indicated the results slightly boosted his own hopes for winning the seat, though he still remains cautious about his prospects.

"Prior to that poll I would have put our odds of winning around 1 percent. After that poll, they have moved the up to maybe as high as 10 percent," said Kelley.

In the past, Kelley has said he is hesitant to fundraise aggressively -- a practice he says is akin to "selling" his integrity.

Given the practical hurdles a lightly-funded campaign creates, Kelley acknowledges support for his campaign from the party establishment will not be extensive.

"Those are the same odds Ken Lucas got for $5 million, but 10 percent isn't 50-50," said Kelley. "So, folks in the Democratic Party aren't particularly enthusiastic."

Kelley says this lack of party connections could be an advantage should he be elected to Congress.

"If I were to get in, the fact is that I wouldn't have any strings attached - no big money strings, no special interest strings, and I don't even have party strings," said Kelley. "That's how I want it. I won't have to pay back anybody."

"We've seen what kind of harm can be done by someone who votes straight party line like Geoff Davis," said Kelley. "His voting record shows he isn't going to waste a lot of brain power thinking about what's right."

Meanwhile, the official word from the Davis camp is that their candidate will not take his competition lightly.

"There's only one poll that matters, and that's on Election Day," said Davis' campaign manager, Jeremy Hughes. "Congressman Davis is raising funds, organizing volunteers, and preparing for another tough election. We will take nothing for granted this fall."

Davis was lauded for his successful campaigns in his past two election bids, when he faced well-known and well-funded Democratic opponents in Lucas and journalist (and father-to-the-stars) Nick Clooney.

Kentucky's U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Louisville) said in April that Davis' 2006 effort was one of the most celebrated in Washington political circles. McConnell also suggested that success was why he hired Davis' former campaign manager, Justin Brasell, for his own re-election bid this year.

There are some signs the Davis campaign may be easing up somewhat. With a sizeable campaign warchest likely to go unchallenged dollar-for-dollar by Kelley's own acknowledgement, Davis recently outlayed $200,000 from his campaign committee funds to the National Republican Congressional Committee for spending elsewhere in the country.