Rothenberg sees dim hopes for Boswell

While some national political analysts seem to be taking longer looks at Kentucky's U.S. Senate race between incumbent Senator Mitch McConnell (R-Louisville) and businessman Bruce Lunsford (D-Louisville), others are speculating another potentially competitive race in the Commonwealth may be done before it has really started.

In an article posted on Roll Call today, political analyst Stuart Rothenberg said Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District race "is over," unless state Senator David Boswell's (D-Owensboro) effort receives a major financial boost.

"Kentucky 2nd district hopeful David Boswell was promoted by some Democrats as a strong contender for retiring Rep. Ron Lewis' (R) open seat. Yes, said Democrats about the Owensboro-Bowling Green district, it's conservative, but the Democratic state Senator is a good fit for it," wrote Rothenberg today. "Well, Boswell's June 30 cash-on-hand total of $45,000 should end that talk. Republican nominee Brett Guthrie's $661,000 in the bank means that, barring a total turnaround of finances, this race is over."

The financial picture in the 2nd District after the second fundraising quarter of the year showed state Senator Brett Guthrie (R-Bowling Green) with that distinct advantage in funding.

Rothenberg had earlier categorized the race as "Republican Favored," though the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added the seat to one of its early target lists for potential pick-up.

Boswell's campaign may still hold out some hope after recent public polling in the district showed him with a lead, though that lead was within the margin of error.

The Guthrie camp, for their part, rejected the results of that poll as unreliable based on its early timing.

The recalibration of expectations from Rothenberg comes shortly after another respected political analyst in Charlie Cook put Kentucky's U.S. Senate race in a new category, shifting it from the "solid Republican" column to the "likely Republican" column.

The change there occurred after Lunsford indicated his willingness to self-finance in second quarter financial reports.