Research 2000 matches Rasmussen on Senate race, but gives McCain larger lead

A second poll of Kentucky voters released last week shows presumptive Republican presidential nominee and U.S. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) with a far larger lead in the Commonwealth than another survey conducted during a similar time period.

A Research 2000 poll of 600 likely voters gives McCain a 56 to 35 percent lead over presumptive Democratic nominee and U.S. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) - a Republican lead a full eleven points more than Rasmussen Reports measured in their survey.

Nine percent in that poll said they were "undecided."

Meanwhile, Research 2000's measurements for the state's U.S. Senate contest between U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Louisville) and businessman Bruce Lunsford (D-Louisville) yielded similar results to Rasmussen. Research 2000 found McConnell up 49 to 38 percent.

Looking at Research 2000

The lead with Research 2000 for McCain counters the uptick Obama was showing in the Rasmussen survey, which traced an increase in support for the Democrat from earlier polling by the latter firm.

Rasmussen last showed a 49 to 39 percent lead for McCain.

According to Research 2000, McCain cruises in most demographics, holding a twenty five point advantage among men and a seventeen point lead among women. Rasmussen gave McCain eighteen and three point leads on these demographics, respectively.

Interestingly, Obama polls stronger among Democrats according to Research 2000 than in the Rasmussen figures.

Research 2000 gave the Illinois Senator 64 percent support from members of his own party in Kentucky, while Rasmussen found just 56 percent of Democrats backed him.

While Obama holds a dominating lead among Kentucky's African-American voters in the Research 2000 poll, McCain takes 63 percent of the state's white vote to Obama's 29 percent.

McCain also sweeps all age demographics, including a ten point lead among the 18-29 contingent.

The Research 2000 poll also offers a district-by-district breakdown of support for the two candidates.

Obama only leads in the 3rd Congressional District, which contains nearly all of Louisville. There, the Democrat holds a 48 to 42 percent advantage.

McCain leads by more than twenty points in every other district, including the 6th, represented by Ben Chandler (D-Versailles).

Chandler was one of two of Kentucky's eight Democratic superdelegates who endorsed Obama before the state's May 20 primary.

The Senate's the same

While the difference between the two polling firm's results was evident for the presidential race, figures for the U.S. Senate contest were nearly the same. Rasmussen gave McConnell a 50 to 38 percent advantage, while Research 2000 found the race to stand at 49 to 38 for McConnell.

Thirteen percent are "undecided" in the latter poll.

According to demographic breakdowns provided with the Research 2000 numbers, McConnell leads by 20 points among men and four points among women.

Lunsford pulls 65 percent support from members of his own party, while McConnell gets 18 percent of Democrats - a constituency the four-term incumbent has always had to perform relatively well in to win the state, which favors Democrats in terms of registration statistics.

Among independents, McConnell leads 51 to 37 percent.

Like Obama, Lunsford only leads in the state's 3rd Congressional District. There, the Democrat holds a 49 to 40 percent advantage.

McConnell's lead in the state's five other districts is in double digits. Among those, his lead is smallest in the 6th - Chandler's - where Lunsford is behind by 12 points.

Forty-nine percent of respondents rate their impression of McConnell as either "very favorable" or "favorable" while 41 percent deem him "very unfavorable" or "unfavorable."

Lunsford received a "very favorable" or "favorable" rating from 44 percent of respodnents, with "very unfavorable" or "unfavorable" coming from 42 percent.

Rasmussen v. Research 2000

The two surveys were conducted during overlapping time periods. Rasmussen's survey was entirely done on July 29, while the Research 2000 data was collected from July 28 to July 30.

On July 28, Lunsford's campaign launched a response ad to McConnell's advertising from the week before, and McConnell's camp then released a new ad on July 31.

Rasmussen polled 500 "likely" voters while Research 2000 collected data from 600 "likely voters, though that difference in sample size is not likely to skew results as significantly as evidenced.

The two firms also utilize different polling methods. Rasmussen relies on automated telephone polling, utilizing pre-recorded voices when contacting voters. Research 2000 uses live callers.

Rasmussen had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent compared to Research 2000's margin of plus or minus 4 percent.