McConnell up 12 in latest SurveyUSA poll

U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Louisville) is maintaining a double-digit lead over his rival in Kentucky's Senate race, Bruce Lunsford (D-Louisville), according to a new poll from SurveyUSA.

A poll of 636 "likely voters" conducted from August 9 to August 11 shows McConnell with a 52 to 40 percent lead over Lunsford - a lead largely in line with other recent polls.

The new SurveyUSA numbers show a dramatic change in the race from the last poll conducted by the New Jersey-based firm, which gave McConnell just a four point lead in June, at 50 to 46 percent.

The number of respondents indicating they were "undecided" jumped from four to eight percent between the two polls.

The margin of error on both polls stands at plus or minus 4 percent.

McConnell maintains leads in western Kentucky, northern/central Kentucky, and eastern Kentucky while Lunsford holds a 6 point advantage in the Louisville area.

Between the two polls, Lunsford's support in McConnell's traditional stronghold of western Kentucky has eroded, dropping from 45 to 33 percent since June.

McConnell's numbers do not significantly benefit from that drop however, with the incumbent increasing his lead in the area from 52 to just 53 percent of respondents. Meanwhile, undecided respondents in the area jumped from 3 to 15 percent.

In SurveyUSA's June poll, Lunsford held a 55 to 42 percent lead in the Louisville area, but five points have since fallen off, dropping the lead in the area to 50 to 44 percent.

Lunsford does lead among young voters - those in the 18 to 34 demographic - polling 48 to 43 percent over McConnell.

Support for the Democratic challenger among older voters has dropped off slightly, however. In June, Lunsford garnered 45 percent of support from voters aged 50 to 64, with McConnell leading with 52 percent.

The Republican now takes 57 percent of that demographic to Lunsford's 38 percent.

Lunsford's support among the oldest demographic - those 65 or older - also dropped seven points between the two polls.

McConnell continues to poll well among Democrats, a constituency where he has traditionally enjoyed a chunk of support. In the most recent poll, he grabbed 30 percent of Democratic respondents, while Lunsford dipped slightly to get the support of 63 percent of Democrats.

Though just nine percent of the poll was composed of "independent" voters, numbers among that constituency were the most radically altered since June, with a massive migration away from McConnell towards an "undecided" position.

Just 7 percent of independents said they were "undecided" in June, though that number has shot up to 23 percent in the latest poll.

Among the same group, McConnell's support has dropped from 52 to 39 percent since June, while Lunsford's has dipped from 42 to 38 percent

As initially reported by PageOne, the SurveyUSA sample is of a different composition than in June, with some notable contrasts.

While the June poll included a sample comprised of 57 percent Democrats, 33 percent Republicans and 9 percent independents, the latest incarnation includes 50 percent Democrats, 39 percent Republicans and the same number of independents.

57 percent of registered voters in Kentucky are Democrats, 36 are Republican and 6 are "independent," according to numbers dating from July 15.

The two month hiatus between Kentucky Senate polls by SurveyUSA necessarily means a good deal of politicking has occurred in the interim.

Both Lunsford and McConnell are participating in an increasingly negative television ad war that has revolved mainly around gas policy, with many analysts indicating Lunsford has been on the defensive during many of the exchanges.

Lunsford also released his own energy plan and announced his support of expanded domestic oil drilling, while McConnell hammered the Democrat for his role in the passage of a new gas tax structure for the state in 1980.

Though the SurveyUSA numbers show a good deal of change since the earlier June 17 numbers, the new poll is in line with recent results from Rasmussen Reports and Research 2000, which gave McConnell a 12 and 11 point lead, respectively.