McConnell internal poll shows 9 point lead for incumbent

The campaign of U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Louisville) released another internal poll today while national discussion of the Senate Minority Leader's race against businessman Bruce Lunsford (D-Louisville) has been buzzing about a tightening competition. The latest internal from the Republican's camp shows a nine point edge for the incumbent.

A polling memo from McConnell's campaign pollster, Jan van Lohuizen of Voter/Consumer Research, says 800 were surveyed between Oct. 5 to Oct. 8. Van Lohuizen says the lead for McConnell among those interviewees is 47 to 38 percent.

While McConnell remains under 50 percent, the McConnell campaign touts the fact that Lunsford did not breach the 40 percent mark. Van Lohuizen also writes Lunsford's "negatives have increased dramatically." The internal poll reportedly indicates 31 percent of respondents have a "favorable impression" of the Democrat while 40 percent are said to have an "unfavorable impression."

(Read the memo here).

Favorability numbers for McConnell were not released with the internal poll.

Both campaigns have intensified the air war in recent weeks, running increasingly negative ads against their opponents. Outside interest groups have also begun investing in attack spots on television and radio.

Two recent polls caused shockwaves in the race, and caused many analysts to recalibrate their predictions in the race. A SurveyUSA measure from Sept. 22  gave McConnell just a three point lead and a Mason-Dixon survey completed on Sept. 25 showed the incumbent up just one point. Those polls came as economic turbulence dominated the news, yet also just weeks after McConnell was shown up 12 points in other surveys. 

The McConnell campaign assailed the Mason-Dixon numbers in an e-mail to supporters, claiming the firm involved was unreliable.

Since then, a poll from Rasmussen Reports released Oct. 2 gave McConnell a nine point lead.

van Lohuizen says the lead shown in the new internal poll is a sign McConnell "regained a solid lead" and cites McConnell's advertisements targeting Lunsford's affiliation with Valor Healthcare as impactful. Those ads argue veteran's health care clinics operated by Valor - for whom Lunsford is a director - provided "deficient care" to patients. Lunsford's campaign contested those assertions and aired an ad featuring a veteran who supposedly criticized Valor in the McConnell spot instead appearing to denounce McConnell for taking his words out of context.

At any rate, van Lohuizen asserts McConnell's Valor ads were particularly powerful in the Louisville area and he correlates the ad's launch with increasing negatives for Lunsford.

"We are continuing to run an aggressive campaign focused on the economy, and on Senator McConnell's ability to simply do more for Kentucky," said McConnell's campaign manager Justin Brasell in a statement.

McConnell's campaign has released numerous internal polls throughout the campaign. The first was from late May and gave McConnell an eleven point lead after Rasmussen Reports showed him down five to Lunsford.

A second gave McConnell the same 11 point lead after a SurveyUSA poll showed the incumbent Sen. up four over Lunsford in mid-June.

Another internal was put out in early Sept. after SurveyUSA showed McConnell's approvals falling. That internal showed the Republicanup 17 points.