New Numbers in Kentucky Favor Clinton in May, McCain in November

A new poll conducted by Lexington-based Preston-Obsorne finds Senator Hillary Clinton (D - New York) is holding her large lead over Senator Barack Obama (D-Illinois) in the Democratic Presidential primary in Kentucky. The poll also shows Senator John McCain (R- Arizona) running solidly ahead of either Democratic candidate in a general election matchup. The survey of 600 "frequent" voters from across the Bluegrass state shows Clinton leading Obama 56 percent to 25 percent in the Democratic primary race. Ten percent of respondents remain undecided. Broken down across Congressional districts, Obama trails Clinton in each. Her lead in that regard bodes well for her success obtaining a majority of delegates, but the allocation of the undecided vote could determine how large a majority she receives. 34 of Kentucky's 51 pledged delegates are allocated in proportion to electoral results in the state's six Congressional districts. In Kentucky's First Congressional District, Clinton holds a 55 to 24 percent lead over Obama, with 12 percent of respondents undecided. The lead for the New York Senator is one point stronger in the 2nd District, 56 to 26, with 11 percent undecided. In KY-4, Clinton polled 64 percent to Obama's 24 percent, with 10 percent undecided. In each of these districts, five delegate votes will be awarded on May 20. Should Clinton be able to drive her vote totals over 66 percent, she would obtain two-thirds of the available delegates per district. The 5th District looks to be a Clinton stronghold, where the poll shows she could take all five of its available delegates. Clinton garnered support to the tune of 70 to 9 percent there, holding Obama below the 15 percent threshold necessary to be obtained in a district to be awarded a delegate vote. Nine percent of respondents were undecided there. Kentucky's 6th District will send six delegates to Denver for the Democratic National Convention. Clinton polled 53 to 25 over Obama there, with 10 percent undecided. The 3rd District currently represented by Democratic Congressman and Obama supporter John Yarmuth of Louisville is the only district where Obama appears competitive in the poll. There, Clinton leads 45 to 40 percent, with 9 percent undecided. The 3rd District contains almost all of the city of Louisville, including a large African-American population and several sizable university communities. Another seventeen delegates will be allocated to either of the Presidential candidates based on the proportion of the statewide Democratic vote each receives. Either of the Democratic candidates is shown to have an uphill battle in Kentucky against the presumptive Repuiblican nominee. John McCain holds a 60 to 29 percent lead over Obama statewide, and a narrower 53 to 42 percent margin over Clinton. McCain is shown ahead of Obama in every Congressional District but the 3rd. Clinton polls ahead there too, while also drawing a statistical tie with McCain in the 5th District and approaching within five percent in KY-6. Preston-Osbourne's release regarding the poll noted one "caveat" of concern with their results: the figures measure support among "likely voters," meaning those who voted in three of the last five general elections. "That means the younger voting bloc is under-represented, which could benefit Obama in both races," read the firm's statement. The margin of error for the poll was listed at plus or minus four percentage points.