Two new polls find Lunsford's lead unmoved

With exactly a week to go before Kentucky's primary election day, Democratic Senate candidate and Louisville businessman Bruce Lunsford has a sizeable lead over the other six candidates in his bid to secure his party's nomination to take on incumbent Senator Mitch McConnell (R-Louisvile) in November, according to two new polls.

A new poll by the New Jersey-based firm SurveyUSA finds Lunsford sitting on an eighteen point lead over his nearest competition, Louisville businessman Greg Fischer. Lunsford holds a 41 to 23 percent advantage over Fischer of the May 20 primary. A Lexington Herald-Leader poll released yesterday evening shows Lunsford up twenty points over Fischer, with a 43 to 23 percent lead.

The Herald-Leader's numbers

Polling 500 "likely" voters, the Herald-Leader finds Lunsford seemingly looking safe in the Democratic primary. Lunsford leads Fischer in support from respondents across every demographic measured.

Other candidates in the race sit well behind both Fischer and Lunsford. Prospect physician Michael Cassaro registers five percent along with perennial candidate David Williams. Warehouse and convenience store employee James Rice and Manchester attorney Kenneth Stepp both poll at four percent, while former postal service union worker David Wylie grabbed two percent.

Five percent of voters were undecided, while nine percent selected an "other" choice.

Amid the Fischer campaigns recent targeting of allegations of business impropriety and support of Republicans in Lunsford's past - and subsequent calls for Fischer to stop the so-called "attacks" from some prominent Kentucky Democrats - favorability ratings for both candidates are relatively close.

Forty-two percent of respondents to the poll rate Lunsford as either "very favorable" or "favorable." 23 percent rated Lunsford as "unfavorable" or "very unfavorable," while 35 percent had no opinion of the frontrunner.

Fischer garnered "very favorable" or "favorable" ratings from 37 percent of those polled. "Very unfavorable" and "unfavorable" ratings came from sixteen percent of respondents. 47 percent had no opinion of Fischer, which could indicate low name identification among a large segment of the population.

The poll was conducted by Research 2000, a Maryland firm, on behalf of the newspaper and Lexington's WKYT. Respondents were contacted from May 7 to May 9.

The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent.

SurveyUSA's findings

SurveyUSA - frequent pollsters of political opinion in Kentucky - show little movement among candidates in their most recent poll, commissioned by the WHAS television station.

Lunsford's support in the poll released yesterday is exactly the same as that he received in a poll released May 6, with his candidacy receiving 41 percent support. Fischer nudged upwards just a point to 23 percent support.

In this measurement, frequent candidate David Williams grabs seven percent support to lead the rest of the field. Cassaro reaches three percent along with James Rice and David Wylie. Stepp registers two percent support.

The SurveyUSA figures also find 12 percent of voters choosing an "other" candidate and six percent remaining undecided.

The poll was conducted May 9 through May 11, and 641 likely voters constitute the sample. According to the firm, the margin of error is plus or minus 3.9 percent.

SurveyUSA utilizes automated polling technology and pre-recorded voices in its measurements.

Fischer campaign keeps hope alive

Fischer's campaign spokesman Ken Shapero said he expected Lunsford's lead to shrink in the last week of the campaign as his camp "ramps up" efforts.

"The support Greg has got is really solid support," said Shapero. "A lot of that Lunsford lead is a soft, name recognition lead."

Lunsford previously ran for statewide office in 2003 and 2007, seeking the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. He also served as Kentucky's Secretary of Commerce.

ALSO on PolitickerKY.com:

• Lunsford speculates turnout boost could help his campaign