Northup camp releases internal poll painting a brighter picture for her bid

Congressional candidate Anne NorthupOn the heels of a new SurveyUSA poll showing their candidate down seventeen points to incumbent U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D-Louisville) in the race for the 3rd Congressional District, the campaign of Anne Northup (R-Louisville) criticized those numbers and released results of an internal poll showing her trailing by only 7.3 percent.

"The WHAS/Survey USA poll released today is seriously flawed," said Northup campaign chair Ted Jackson. "Given the national climate, we are encouraged by our own poll results."

A memo from Northup's campaign pollster, Jan van Lohuizen of Voter/Consumer Research, shows Northup down 51 to 43 percent, according to the internal poll.

According to van Lohuizen's memo, available here (right click, save as), the margin in the internal poll is 7.3 percent "due to roundoff." The poll was conducted around the same time as the SurveyUSA measurement, with data collected from 400 respondents on June 4,5, and 8.

van Lohuizen discounted the SurveyUSA numbers as incorrect, as they containined a margin "simply too large to be believable."

"You have not been down that far in any election since the last time you ran as a challenger against Mike Ward; you were unknown at the time, but ended up winning the race," van Lohuizen wrote Northup in the campaign memo released this afternoon. "Every election since that time has been close and every poll done in every election since that time has been close. In short the SurveyUSA numbers are incorrect."

Northup lost the 3rd District seat in 2006 to Yarmuth, 51 to 48 percent.

The Republican pollster - who also serves in the role of campaign pollster for incumbent Senator Mitch McConnell (R-Louisville) and 2nd Congressional District candidate Brett Guthrie (R-Bowling Green) - noted that the margin in his poll "is not great news," but claims that "when Republicans are down -15 nationally, you're in pretty good shape."

The memo - and a campaign statement from Jackson - also hint at other information contained in the internal poll, but not publicly released,from which the campaign is apparently basing their confidence in the light of the poll deficits.

"The results are emphatically NOT a result of a stronger Yarmuth image. In fact fewer voters believe he deserves to be re-elected now than did last January," wrote van Lohuizen in the memo.

"Make no mistake, John Yarmuth will have a lot to answer for this November. His economic policies have given us $4.00 per gallon gas prices, sky rocketing food prices and rising unemployment," said Jackson in the statement released in conjunction with the internal poll figures. " His inattention to local projects has put our city at a serious disadvantage."

The Northup campaign's response to the SurveyUSA numbers mark the second time in recent weeks a van Lohuizen client has responded to public polling with the release of internal numbers showing different results.

After a Rasmussen Reports survey showed McConnell down 5 points to Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford, McConnell's camp released the results of a van Lohuizen poll showing a drastically different picture in an eleven point lead for the incumbent.