Four point lead for McConnell in SurveyUSA poll

In the first public poll in the race released since a surprising Rasmussen Reports measurement gave Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Bruce Lunsford a five point lead over incumbent Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, SurveyUSA is showing McConnell with a four point lead - a gap equal to the margin of error for the poll.

McConnell hits the 50 percent support mark in the new poll of 626 "likely" voters by the New Jersey-based firm. Lunsford trailed the incumbent, coming in with 46 percent.

Just four percent of respondents were "undecided."

The numbers offer a stark contrast to both the Rasmussen figures - giving Lunsford a 49 to 44 percent lead - and an internal McConnell campaign poll showing the Senate Majority Leader up 11 points, at 50 to 39 percent.

After the release of the Rasmussen Reports poll, McConnell's campaign derided the results and pushed out their internal numbers.

With McConnell's lead squeezing within the margin of error of plus or minus four percent in the new poll, the relatively calm race could grow more intense.

Lunsford's campaign and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee quickly circulated the poll results, touting them as showing a "dead heat" in the race.

Demographics

In the poll, McConnell is shown with an eight point lead among men and a two point lead among women in the sample.

Young voters - a constituency hypothesized to see increased turnout this November given the presidential candidacy of Senator Barack Obama (D-Ill.) appear to go for Lunsford. The Democrat takes 52 percent of 18-34 demographic to McConnell's 41 percent, though McConnell leads each other age group.

Democrats - who constitute 57 percent of the poll's respondents - fall 67 to 29 percent to Lunsford.

Democrats traditionally enjoy a registration advantage in the state, though Republicans continue to fracture this constituency to win statewide elections. During campaign appearances, Lunsford has spoken of the necessity to reconnect with registered Democrats pulling the lever for Republicans in his bid to upset McConnell.

In a regional breakdown of the state, McConnell holds a significant lead in each area except metro Louisville, where he trails Lunsford 42 to 55 percent. 29 percent of respondents were from this region.

In western Kentucky, McConnell leads the Louisville businessman by seven, while his lead in the northern/central region hits fourteen points. 35 percent of poll respondents were from this region. Eastern Kentucy breaks for McConnell by fifteen.

The poll was commissioned by three regional TV stations: WHAS of Louisville, WLEX of Lexington, and WCPO of Cincinnatti.