McConnell camp again rebutts public poll with internal numbers

For the second time in the young campaign season, the campaign of four-term U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell (R-Louisville) has released internal polling data showing a large lead on the heels of public polling painting a dimmer picture for the incumbent.

The new internal numbers put McConnell in the same position as figures released from the campaign on May 27, with the Senate Majority Leader holding a 50 to 39 percent lead over Democratic nominee Bruce Lunsford, of Louisville.

The McConnell campaign also said their numbers show a 54 percent favorability rating for their candidate.

The poll - conducted by McConnell's long-time pollster Jan van Lohuizen of Voter/Consumer Research - was conducted from June 15 to June 17, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percent.

600 registered voters were surveyed.

The release of the numbers comes shortly after the New Jersey-based firm SurveyUSA showed McConnell with just a four point lead over Lunsford, 50 to 46 percent - a lead within the margin of error for the poll.

A late-May Rasumussen Reports poll gave Lunsford a five point lead in the race. 

To this news, the McConnell camp first put out internal numbers, while bashing Rasmussen. 

In a polling "memo" avaialble here (right click, save as) from van Lohuizen released in conjunction with the internals, the pollster offered a criqitue of the recent public numbers on the race.

"There has been public polling in Kentucky showing the Senate race to be very competitive, if not dead even. These polls have shown Senator McConnell underperforming in Louisville, but doing very well in the Eastern Kentucky counties that make up the Charleston and Knoxville DMAs," said van Lohuizen. "Similarly, public polling has shown Senator McConnell doing better in Eastern Kentucky than he is in Western Kentucky counties. Those findings run counter to election returns from the past two decades and are a primary flaw with some of the recently released data to the public."

The McConnell camp also provided a "tracking" graph showing favorability ratings for McConnell and Lunsford in internal polls conducted since January.

In that time frame, McConnell has barely wavered from the 54 percent favorability where he currently sits, while Lunsford hit a high of 34 percent in May, only to fall to 27 percent in this month's poll.

van Lohuizen's memo also states 51 percent of voters "are not aware...or have no impression" of Lunsford.