After Guthrie's early warning, poll shows Boswell leading in KY-2

The first indication of the climate in Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District may offer a boost to Democrats holding out hope of picking up the seat left open by the retirement of U.S. Rep Ron Lewis (R-Cecilia).

A new poll by the New Jersey-based firm SurveyUSA gives state Senator David Boswell (D-Sorgho) a 47 to 44 percent advantage over his colleague, state Senator Brett Guthrie (R-Bowling Green).

Nine percent of the 545 "likely" voters polled indicated they were undecided in the race, while the poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4.3 percent.

The results come after Guthrie's camp dispatched a memo yesterday saying any public polling done now would be "unreliable."

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced earlier this year they would be targeting the KY-2 seat. Still, the results may be better then expected, as the district has been in Republican hands since Lewis first won it in 1994 and is rated a "Solid" Republican district by the Cook Political Report.

Boswell holds a 6 percent advantage among female voters in the poll, while males split between the two candidates, with each receiving 47 percent support from that demographic.

KY-2, like all of the Commonwealth's Congressional districts, offers a registration advantage to Democrats that often does not translate to district-wide electoral success. However, in the poll, Boswell secures a significant majority of Democrats polled, taking 76 percent of that constituency. Guthrie enjoys similar favorablity among his party, polling 81 percent.

During his primary campaign against Daviess County Judge/Executive Reid Haire (D-Owensboro), Boswell secured the endorsement of the National Rifle Association - support that could help him present credentials as a Democrat who may appeal to the recognizably conservative voter base in KY-2.

Guthrie, however, leads among the more conservative sectors of the district. Among voters identifying their position on abortion as "pro-life" - a population comprising 64 percent of those surveyed - Guthrie prevailed 54 to 38 percent.

Guthrie also won among self-described conservatives - 39 percent of the survey sample - 70 to 23 percent. Boswell took moderates - who comprised 35 percent of the sample - 62 to 29 percent.

Boswell could arguably be said to have better name recognition in the district, given his 18 year tenure as a state Senator, 5 years as a state Representative and four years as Kentucky's Commissioner of Agriculture.

Nonetheless, it is Guthrie's campaign that has made the most forthright showings of strength thus far in the campaign. Guthrie claimed $300,000 in second quarter contributions in a memo circulated by Guthrie's campaign yesterday - a feat the camp claims will give them a media-buy advantage and a leg-up in the general election.

In the Democratic primary in KY-2, Reid Haire was the only candidate to take to the television airwaves, but ultimately lost to Boswell by seventeen points.

Guthrie's pre-emptive poll warning

In the same Guthrie memo dispatched yesterday - said to be authored by campaign strategist Scott Jennings and pollster Jan van Lohuizen - Guthrie's campaign took a new angle on poll response by preemptively warning against results from public polls.

(Read the Guthrie Memo here - right click, save as)

Of SurveyUSA polls in particular, the Guthrie memo warns "these polls are conducted on the cheap using extremely unreliable automated telephone surveys which cannot be trusted."

"At this point, before either candidate has started broadly communicating with voters via paid advertising, polls will not tell you anything about how voters feel about the candidates," added the Memo's authors. "Any survey conducted in the next few weeks will only reflect the generic political environment, which we know to be tough. "

The memo did cover all bases, noting that if Guthrie was shown ahead in a public survey, his supporters should "not relax our fundraising and organizational efforts one bit."

The young campaign season in Kentucky thus far has featured a wealth of activity from van Lohuizen - a long-time pollster for many prominent Republicans in Kentucky and across the country. van Lohuizen has penned memos responding to three public polls already this year - not including the pre-emptive strike for Guthrie.

SurveyUSA results showing both former U.S. Rep Anne Northup (R-Louisville) trailing in Kentucky's 3rd District and incumbent U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell (R-Louisville) in a tight race with his Democratic opponent were both met with internal poll results from van Lohuizen showing more positive results for his clients.

Foreshadowing from Guthrie?

In a portion of the memo entitled "Looking Ahead," Guthrie's advisors assert that it is their candidate who will mesh best with

"Brett's experience and record best reflect the values of the people of the Second Congressional District. This election is about economic and national security - Brett will tout his military and successful manufacturing experience to show he is the candidate best equipped to solve the problems we face."

Guthrie previously served in the Army's 101st Airborne Division and attended the U.S. Military Academy at West Point.

Foreshadowing potential attacks using Boswell's necessarily lengthy record in state government against him, Guthrie's campaign also asserts "there are many things voters will be surprised to learn about Boswell's tenure in the legislature
and about his career as a lobbyist."

One of these "surprising things" is referenced in the memo, as Guthrie's campaign argues Boswell tried to move his home county of Daviess into Kentucky's 1st Congressional District during redistricting procedures in 2001 - an effort Guthrie's strategists say make it "questionable as to whether Boswell wants to represent the Second District[.]"